MMA - UFC ON FOX 17 : DOS ANJOS VS CERRONE

Opening Balance 11,900

Overeem +260- 2 units

UFC 194 - UPDATE

Opening Balance 11,570

McGregor -160 - 1 Unit
Rockhold +135 - 4 Units
Souza -170 - 1 Unit

UFC 194 - Update

Opening Balance 11,570


McGreggor +100
Rockhold +400
Souza - 170

Won 5 Units
Lost 1.7 Units

Closing Balance 11,900

Start Date 2/27/2015

Rate of Return 19.0%

Annualized Rate of Return (AR) 23.9%

19.0%/290 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)

MMA - UFC 194 : ALDO VS MCGREGOR - Dec 12

Opening Balance 11,570

McGregor -160 - 1 Unit
Rockhold +135 - 4 Units
Souza -170 - 1 Unit

UFC 192 Update

UFC 192 - Update

Opening Balance 11,270


Bader +200
Cormier +100

Won 3 Units

Lost 0 Units


Closing Balance 11,570


Start Date 2/27/2015

Rate of Return 15.7%

Annualized Rate of Return (AR) [1] 26.2%

15.7%/219 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)

[1] Not meaningful since I've been tracking for under a year

EVENT RECORD	7 - 1
UFC 192	3 - 0
UFC 189	0 - 4
Bellator 138	2 - 0
UFC 187	5 - 0
UFC 186	3 - 1
UFC on Fox 15	3 - 0
UFC 185	2 - 0
UFC 184	4 - 1
Total Record	22 - 6

MMA - UFC 192 : COMIER VS. GUSTAFSSON - Oct 04

Busy with life, haven't updated in a while...  Here goes:

Opening Balance 11,270

Cormier -280 - 1 Unit
Bader +110 - 2 Units

UFC 189 Update

UFC 189 - Update

Opening Balance 11,670

Mendes -400

Won 0 Units

Lost 4 Units


Closing Balance 11,270






Start Date 2/27/2015

Rate of Return 12.7%

Annualized Rate of Return (AR) [1] 32.6%

12.7%/142 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)







[1] Not meaningful since I've been tracking for under a year





EVENT RECORD    6 - 1   

UFC 189 0 - 4 - LOSS

Bellator 138    2 - 0 - WIN

UFC 187    5 - 0 - WIN

UFC 186    3 - 1 - WIN

UFC on Fox 15    3 - 0 - WIN

UFC 185    2 - 0 - WIN

UFC 184    4 - 1 - WIN

Total Record    19 - 6 - WIN

MMA - UFC 189: July 15th

MMA - UFC 189: July 15th


I don’t normally pick this early, but I think that this line is so ‘off’ that I’m going to pick it now.  Perhaps more picks to follow


Picks


Pick / Odds

Mendes +125


Picks (Units)

Mendes - 4



Picks (Dollars)

Mendes 400 / 500


Opening Balance 11,670

Bellator 138 Update

Sorry about the slow response.

   
Bellator 138 - Update


Opening Balance 11,470



Slice 200



Won 2 Units

Lost 0 Units



Closing Balance 11,670



Start Date 2/27/2015

Rate of Return 16.7%

Annualized Rate of Return (AR) [1] 48.0%

16.7%/127 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)



[1] Not meaningful since I've been tracking for under a year


EVENT RECORD    6 - 0       
Bellator 138    2 - 0    2    0
UFC 187    5 - 0    5    0
UFC 186    3 - 1    3    1
UFC on Fox 15    3 - 0    3    0
UFC 185    2 - 0    2    0
UFC 184    4 - 1    4    1
Total Record    17 - 2    19    2

Bellator 138

Bellator 138 - June 19th

Picks


Pick / Odds

Slice - 275

Picks (Units)

Slice - 2

Picks (Dollars)

Slice 550 / 200

Opening Balance 11.470

UFC Fight Night Sat. Jun. 6 Boetsch vs. Henderson

Haven't had time to scout.  No picks.

Just saw this saved as a draft and published.  

MMA - UFC 188: VELASQUEZ VS WERDUM

Won't have time to scout, so no picks.

Having said that, I think it highly unlikely Werdum has anything for Velasquez.  At -525 I wouldn't do it, especially since they're heavyweights, but I really like Velasquez.  Won't count, good or bad, against my record just putting it out there.

Post UFC 187 Update

Opening Balance 10,970

Weidman 200
Cormier 300

Won 5 Units
Lost 0 Units

Closing Balance 11,470

Start Date 2/27/2015
Rate of Return 14.7%
Annualized Rate of Return (AR) [1] 62.4%
14.7%/86 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)

[1] Not meaningful since I've been tracking for under a year

UFC 187	5 - 0
UFC 186	3 - 1
UFC on Fox 15	3 - 0
UFC 185	2 - 0
UFC 184	4 - 1
Total Record	17 - 2

MMA - UFC 187: JOHNSON VS CORMIER - May 23 PART II

Odds have moved.  Adding 1 unit to each of the prior wagers

Cormier -115 - 1 Unit
Wiedman -390 - 1 Unit

UFC 187: JOHNSON VS CORMIER - May 23

MMA - UFC 187: JOHNSON VS CORMIER - May 23

Picks


Pick / Odds

Weidman -530
Cormier  -130

Picks (Units)

Weidman - 1
Cormier - 2

Picks (Dollars)

Weidman 530 / 100
Cormier 260 / 200

Opening Balance 10.970

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 66 : EDGAR VS FABER

Been traveling internationally.  Haven't scouted UFC FIGHT NIGHT 66 : EDGAR VS FABER.

No picks, just logging a post.

Post UFC 186 Update

Post UFC ON FOX 15: MACHIDA VS ROCKHOLD Update

Opening Balance 10,800

Cote 200
Rampage 100
Cote/Riggs U 2.5 rds -130

Won 3 Units
Lost 1.3 Units


Opening Balance 10,800

Cote 200
Rampage 100
Cote/Riggs U 2.5 rds -130

Closing Balance 10,970

Start Date 2/27/2014
Rate of Return 9.7%
Annualized Rate of Return (AR) [1]  62.1%
8%/57 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)


[1] Not meaningful since I've been tracking for under a year

UFC 186: JOHNSON VS HORIGUCHI - Apr 25 - PICKS part II

Don't want to update the prior post to avoid any accusations of record fixing, but adding 1 bet:

Quinton Jackson -200

1 Unit risked

UFC 186: JOHNSON VS HORIGUCHI - Apr 25 - PICKS

UFC 186: JOHNSON VS HORIGUCH

Picks


Pick / Odds

Cote -210
Cote/Riggs U 2.5 rds -130

Picks (Units)

Cote -2
Under -1

Picks (Dollars)

Cote 420 / 200
Under 130 / 100

Opening Balance 10.800

Post UFC ON FOX 15: MACHIDA VS ROCKHOLD - UPDATE

Post UFC ON FOX 15: MACHIDA VS ROCKHOLD Update

Opening Balance 10,500
 
Rockhold 200
VanZant 100

Won 3 Units
Lost 0 Units

Closing Balance 10,800

Start Date 2/27/2014
Rate of Return 8%
Annualized Rate of Return (AR) [1] [2]  58.4%
8%/50 (days since I've started tracking) * 365 (days in a year)


[1] Not meaningful since I've been tracking for under a year

[2] I have scouted three events and am currently up 8%.  I skipped the three events prior to this one due to my work schedule.  If I were to assume a rate of return equal to what I have actually experienced on the three events that I skipped, my rate of return would double to 16% and my AR would also double to 116.8%.  This is, perhaps, unfair because 'what could have been' is just that.  But perhaps it is fair because I am penalizing myself due to current time constraints.  For actual tracking purposes I will state the former, but I will also track the latter because I feel that I may be understating my potential return by skipping events and letting them factor into my annualized rate.

UFC ON FOX 15: MACHIDA VS ROCKHOLD - Apr 18 - PICKS

UFC ON FOX 15: MACHIDA VS ROCKHOLD



Picks


Pick / Odds

Rockhold -150
VanZant -150

Picks (Units)

Rockhold -2
VanZant -1

Picks (Dollars)

Rockhold 300 / 200
VanZant 150 / 100

Opening Balance 10.500

UFC Fight Night Sat. Apr. 11 Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2

More of the same...  work is crazy.  I don't have time to handicap this card.  Will really try to do the next one.  Just logging a post to avoid the perception of fixing my record.

MMA - UFC FIGHT NIGHT 63: MENDES VS LAMAS - Apr 04

Again...  No time to scout this event so I'm passing.  Just logging a post to avoid the perception of fixing my record.

UFC Fight Night 32: Maia vs. LaFlare

My work schedule this week won't permit me time to adequately scout this event so I am abstaining from scouting/betting/picking UFC Fight Night 32.

Without doing much research at all, Koscheck seems like a good value at +370.  Erick Silva seems to me to be a big hype fighter, not so different than Melvin Guillard was a few short years ago, because of his marketable style and look.  Counter that with Koscheck's wrestling pedigree, which he (regrettably) so often forgets to use.  If Kos wants to win this fight and is willing to use his wrestling I see this fight as very winnable for him.  Jon Fitch did it, Kos may still have the tools to do it too.

Aside from my, admitted, lack of research, my major reservation with taking Kos in this fight is that with his age and my assumption of his ranking within the division (nowhere near title contention) he may just be showing up to get paid at this point.  This reservation is compounded by the fact that he returns so soon after being finished.

One may point out that he showed up to fight Ellenburger, not just lay down for a paycheck, as a mitigating factor to point one.  To this, I tend to mostly agree.

I'm not betting this myself, I don't recommend anyone else bet it and it will not count, good or bad, to my tracked record.

I just wanted to register a blog post here so as to avoid a future reader seeing an event absent a blog post and assume a negative result which I subsequently deleted.

Post UFC 185 Update

The previous post should've been titled UFC 185, not UFC 184.  This was not updated because a new time stamp would call the timing (pre-event) of my picks into question.

Post UFC 185 Update

Opening Balance 10,300
 
Rosholt 100
Overeem 100

Won 2 Units
Lost 0 Units

Closing Balance 10,500

Start Date 2/27/2014
Rate of Return 5%
Annualized Rate of Return*  87%
5%/3 (weeks) *52 (weeks in a year)

* Not particularly meaningful since this is only the third week of tracking

UFC 184

Picks

Pick / Odds

Rosholt -330
Overeem -150

Picks (Units)

Rosholt 1
Overeem 1

Picks (Dollars)

Rosholt 330 / 100
Overeem 150 / 100

Opening Balance 10.300

Post UFC 184 Update

Opening Balance 10,000
 
Fullen 200
Ellenberger 100
Ferguson 100
Salazar 0
Lima -100

Won 4 Units
Lost 1 Unit

Closing Balance 10,300

Start Date 2/27/2014
Rate of Return 3%
Annualized Rate of Return*  156%
(3%/1*52)

* Not particularly meaningful since this was the first event

UFC 184

Picks

Pick / Odds

Fullen -165
Ellenberger -220
Ferguson -250
Salazar +160
Lima +110

Picks (Units)

Fullen 2
Ellenberger 1
Fergson 1
Salazar 1
Lima 1

Picks (Dollars)

Fullen 330 / 200
Ellenberger 220 / 100
Fergson 250 / 100
Salazar 100 / 160
Lima 100 / 110

House Rules

$10,000 Bank
$100 = 1 Unit

Favorites are quoted in units being risked
Underdogs are quoted in units that could be won